Global premium coking coal (PHCC) prices have continued to decline in late March, despite rising coke production in China, largely due to the oversupply of the product.
According to Kallanish, Australian coking coal prices fell by $10/t from March 14 to March 28, dropping to $168/t FOB. For the month, the decline was $20/t. Similarly, April futures on the Singapore Exchange dropped by $4/t, reaching $172/t FOB.
Chinese traders attribute the price drop to large supplies of coal from Mongolia, leading to unclaimed offers of Australian coal for sea transportation. Local miners are hoping that Indian coke plants will purchase available volumes before the monsoon season starts. In China, premium coking coal prices remained steady at $176/t EXW from March 14 to 28, though prices overall fell by $6/t in March.
One trader stated, “Chinese coking coal prices may continue to fall due to oversupply.”
In terms of coke production, China’s output increased by 1.6% in January-February 2025, reaching 81.9 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). Shanxi Province, the largest coke-producing region, contributed 16.45 million tons. However, coke exports from China fell by 33% to 1.01 million tons.
Meanwhile, Indian premium coking coal prices fell by $10/t, dropping to $188/t CNF Paradip on March 31, the lowest price in four years, according to BigMint.
On April 1, India initiated an anti-dumping investigation into coking coal imports from several countries, including Australia, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia. Should protective duties be imposed, the Indian market will be closed to producers from these nations, potentially intensifying the oversupply in the global market.
Adding to the uncertainty, investment bank Morgan Stanley reported that China might reinstate import restrictions on coal, including both thermal and coking coal, which were in place until 2022. These restrictions limited coal imports to 200 million tons per year, and were considered due to growing concerns over oversupply, as noted by leading industry groups.
Additionally, high coke stocks in China are pressuring producers to cut prices. The price of fine-grained coke grade I in the port of Rizhao dropped by $4/t from March 7 to March 21, reaching $186/t EXW.
VietnamSteel by Hoa Sen Group
