The global long steel products market is facing unprecedented oversupply and pricing pressure, according to the latest report by IREPAS, the international association for producers and exporters of long steel. The group warns that market conditions have deteriorated into a structural crisis, marked by historically thin margins and a race to the bottom on prices.
In its latest assessment, IREPAS described the global longs market as “oversupplied and overcrowded,” with price negotiations virtually impossible amid intense international competition. The situation has been compounded by a series of macroeconomic shocks and trade actions, most notably the U.S. decision to impose a 50% duty on steel imports—a move that is now disrupting not only the American market but also global trade flows.
Demand for long steel products continues to weaken in Europe and Turkey, and IREPAS warns that no recovery is expected without structural increases in end-user consumption. Adding to the market strain is a flood of cheaper billet imports from Asia, especially from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers, which are now undercutting scrap-based production by offering semi-finished products at steep discounts.
“Billet prices from Asia are dropping almost daily,” IREPAS reported, noting a growing trend of billets replacing scrap in steelmaking processes due to lower input costs.
China remains the dominant disruptor, driven by a combination of sluggish domestic demand, low blast furnace production costs, and continued government export support. In the first quarter of 2025, China’s long steel exports more than doubled year-on-year, contributing heavily to global oversupply and making it increasingly difficult for other Asian mills to maintain market share.
Forecasting remains a challenge in such a volatile environment. “It is very hard to make predictions,” IREPAS stated, emphasizing that the market remains highly unstable, unprofitable, and sensitive to geopolitical developments.
However, some shifts in regional demand are anticipated. According to the OECD’s Steel Outlook 2025, China’s domestic demand for long products is expected to decline amid ongoing economic headwinds. In contrast, ASEAN and MENA regions are projected to see significant demand growth, offering potential relief to exporters in the medium term.
VietnamSteel by Hoa Sen Group
