Fitch Ratings has maintained its price forecasts for coking coal and iron ore through 2025 and 2026, citing continued pressure from sluggish steel demand in China and broader global economic uncertainty.
In its latest commodities outlook, the international credit rating agency projects that coking coal prices will fall sharply from $241 per metric ton in 2024 to $180/mt in both 2025 and 2026. The drop is attributed largely to China’s weakening construction sector and ongoing repercussions from U.S.-China trade tensions, which continue to drag down the global steel market.
"Coking coal prices are expected to remain under pressure until at least 2027," Fitch stated, adding that while new blast furnace-based steel capacity in India and Southeast Asia provides some support, it is insufficient to counterbalance the downturn in Chinese demand.
Meanwhile, iron ore prices are forecast to stay steady at $90/mt in 2025, before slipping slightly to $85/mt in 2026. The agency’s unchanged outlook reflects expectations of persistent demand softness and ample supply in the global market.
Fitch Price Forecast Summary:
| Commodity | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coking Coal | $241/mt | $180/mt | $180/mt |
| Iron Ore | $90/mt | $90/mt | $85/mt |
Fitch emphasized that global demand dynamics, especially in China, will continue to be the dominant force influencing pricing trends for bulk commodities through the mid-decade.
VietnamSteel by Hoa Sen Group
