Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources expects iron ore prices to ease gradually through late 2027, citing weak global steel demand and rising supply.
Iron ore prices, which have hovered just above $100/mt since August, are forecast to average $87/mt in 2025, fall to $85/mt in 2026, and decline further to $82/mt in 2027. The department noted that prices have remained relatively stable despite lower steel output in China, partly due to increased stockpiling by Chinese buyers.
Global iron ore supply is set to expand, driven by new output from Guinea’s Simandou mine, expanded production in Brazil, and increased capacity in Australia. Simandou, which began operations in November, is expected to reach up to 120 million mt per year at full capacity.
The outlook also reflects a 1.9% year-on-year decline in global steel production in the first ten months of the year, with another 2% drop projected for 2025. As a result, Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to fall by FY 2026–27, weighed down by weaker prices, declining ore grades and currency effects.
VietnamSteel by Hoa Sen Group
